The Horn of Africa is once again on edge, with the simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea threatening to boil over. The 2025 Global Peace Index (GPI) paints a stark picture, identifying the Ethiopia-Eritrea dyad as one of the world's highest-risk conflict zones. But what's driving this dangerous dynamic? Let's dive in.
Renewed rhetoric and geopolitical maneuvering have resurrected concerns that peace in the region could crumble. A key factor is Ethiopia's renewed push for direct access to the Red Sea, igniting fresh friction with Eritrea. Ethiopia's leaders frame this as a matter of national survival, even hinting at military action to secure the port of Assab if diplomacy fails. But here's where it gets controversial: a war in this region could disrupt vital maritime trade, threaten crucial Red Sea infrastructure, and potentially draw in outside powers with vested interests in the area. This is on top of an already unstable region facing multiple crises.
This renewed tension is rooted in the aftermath of the northern Ethiopia war (2020–2022) and Ethiopia's ambitions for sea access. Ethiopia has formally accused Eritrea of preparing for war, alleging collaboration with non-state actors to destabilize the country. This has led to increased tensions and border mobilizations. Concerns are growing that frustrations over sea access, unresolved border disputes, and the ongoing fallout from internal Ethiopian conflicts are creating an environment where missteps or escalation, even unintentional, could lead to renewed conflict.
The GPI 2025 highlights structural factors that make this dyad so vulnerable: historical grievances, unresolved border demarcation, persistent militarization, and the legacy of past wars. The recent escalation demonstrates how these vulnerabilities can resurface when political, economic, or security conditions shift.
A key insight from the GPI 2025 is that internal instability within Ethiopia significantly elevates the risk. Despite the peace agreement in the northern region, violence continues in areas like Amhara and Oromia, leading to casualties, displacement, and disruption of essential services. This internal pressure complicates the country's peace efforts. Ethiopia ranks 138th out of 163 countries in the GPI 2025, the lowest in Africa, reflecting deteriorations in conflict, safety, security, and political stability. Domestic conflict can weaken state institutions, strain security forces, and enable armed groups, making border management more difficult and increasing the likelihood that unresolved issues with neighboring states will resurface. The Ethiopia–Eritrea relationship is particularly sensitive to these dynamics.
Eritrea also faces challenges. Ranking 132nd globally in the GPI 2025, it struggles with militarization, political stability, and relations with neighboring states. The combination of two low-ranking states sharing a long and contested border contributes to the dyad’s fragility. In such relationships, conflict risk is heavily influenced by political distrust, competing regional alliances, and militarized zones or disputed territories.
The GPI 2025's risk assessment doesn't predict active hostilities, but it underscores the vulnerability of relationships where peace depends on political decisions, external pressures, and the ability of institutions to manage tensions effectively. These developments don't guarantee war, but they significantly increase the chances of miscalculation and destabilizing escalation.
So, what are the potential consequences if tensions escalate further?
- Humanitarian Crisis: Renewed conflict could trigger a large-scale humanitarian crisis, with displacement, food insecurity, and refugee flows, given the history of mass displacement and civilian harm.
- Regional Instability: Conflict over Red Sea access could draw in external actors, including neighboring countries and Gulf/Red Sea powers with strategic interests in maritime routes, trade, and security.
- Economic Disruption: Conflict around major seaports like Assab would jeopardize maritime trade, impacting Ethiopia, global shipping, imports, and regional economies.
- Setbacks for Peace-building: Renewed war would risk unraveling the progress made since the 2018 rapprochement and the 2022 peace accord, hindering reconciliation, regional cooperation, and long-term stability.
What do you think? Do you believe the international community is doing enough to prevent a renewed conflict? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
